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By Ian Ardill

The first quarter of 2026 has certainly been an interesting ride.

We kicked off the year with reasonably strong markets throughout January and February, only to be met with a very rocky March. Ultimately, many markets experienced a rebound through April.

When you mix that kind of rollercoaster volatility with the fairly pessimistic outlook currently surrounding the Canadian economy, it would be easy for the average investor to feel rather gloomy.

That being said, I am actually quite excited.

Why? Because in any marketplace, there are always winners and losers. The question we must ask ourselves is: How do we position portfolios prudently for varying market conditions?

By no means am I suggesting that I possess a crystal ball to ensure we are always winning. However, I believe it is certainly reasonable to lean heavily into diversification. By deploying assets in an extremely diverse way, we are able to aim for respectable, long-term risk-adjusted returns across varying market environments.

As a money manager, I fundamentally believe that my job revolves around four core pillars:

• Disciplined long-term investment outcomes
• Mitigating risk
• Mitigating taxation
• Maximizing your lifestyle

Every single one of our clients has unique goals, objectives, and dreams for their future. The question then becomes: How can our group act as a true partner in making that vision a reality?

As always, we are here to help. My door is always open, and our entire team is ready to support you in achieving all of your financial and lifestyle objectives.

If you have any questions about your portfolio or the current market, please don’t hesitate to reach out or reply directly.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Q1 Market Review: Navigating Volatility and Finding Opportunity first appeared on Ardill Group.

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By John Ardill

The greater risk is not the obvious fraud, but the credible expert whose advice is confidently delivered and materially wrong. In Wrong, David Freedman argues that even highly credentialed authorities can be systematically mistaken, with real consequences for decisions about health, money, and public judgment.

Expertise Does Not Equal Accuracy

Freedman’s central point is straightforward: expertise does not guarantee accuracy. If we want to protect our health, finances, and judgment, we need a disciplined way to evaluate expert claims rather than assuming credentials alone are enough.

Why Experts Fail

Freedman shows that expert failure is often driven less by bad intent than by bad incentives. In areas such as nutrition and medicine, specialists are rewarded for producing clear, novel, and media-friendly conclusions, while complex or inconclusive findings are harder to fund, publish, and communicate. That pressure can encourage overstatement, selective emphasis, and a false sense of certainty. A useful warning sign is the sweeping claim that “everything we thought before was wrong”; in many cases, the stronger signal of credibility is nuance, not certainty.

Be Cautious with Online Expertise

Freedman highlights two recurring risks in digital environments:

• The internet makes it easy for self-styled experts to build audiences that rarely challenge their views, reinforcing confidence without improving accuracy.
• Easy access to information can create a false sense of mastery, causing people to confuse quick research with genuine understanding.

Freedman’s Expert Credibility Checklist

Use this checklist when evaluating a viral claim, media soundbite, or highly confident expert opinion.

The Bottom Line

In a world full of financial strategists, health authorities, and online gurus, the best defense is not more information but better judgment. The most reliable experts tend to qualify their claims, acknowledge complexity, and show where the evidence is strong, weak, or still evolving.

John Ardill
Founder and Mentor
Ardill Group

Direct: 1 416 400 5882
Office: 1 905 907 7000
john@ardillgroup.com

The post Why Experts Are Often Wrong first appeared on Ardill Group.

We hope you will join us for the next edition of our Coffee with Ardill webinar series on May 20^th at 12noon ET.  Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill will be having a compelling one-hour live conversation with Darren Krissie, CEO and Founder, of Skyward Equity Partners 

This is your opportunity to gain access to the strategic thinking that guides Skyward Equity Partners.

• Live Q&A: Ask your questions directly. Darren and Ian will address them live.

• ☕ A treat for you: Attendees will receive a virtual gift card to Tim Hortons.

Can’t attend live? Register anyway and we will send you the recording.

Secure your place today, and feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

REGISTER

Why you should attend: A message from Ian Ardill.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Next webinar: Skyward first appeared on Ardill Group.

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We have received some very positive feedback about the April 22nd webinar with Daniel Pembleton, asset manager of Pavilion! It was a great opportunity to gain access to information about a tax-saving investment strategy focused on Canadian natural resources.

Here is a recording of the webinar, including the Q&A. Feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested. If you would like to discuss any aspect of this opportunity, please contact us at info@ardillgroup.com or call us at 905-907-7000.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Pavilion webinar: the video first appeared on Ardill Group.

We hope you will join us for the next edition of our Coffee with Ardill webinar series on April 22^nd at 12noon ET.  Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill will be having a compelling one-hour live conversation with Daniel Pembleton, MBA, CFA, President of Accilent Capital Management, asset manager for Pavilion. 

This is your opportunity to gain access to information about a tax-saving investment strategy focused on Canadian natural resources.

• Live Q&A: Ask your questions directly. Daniel and Ian will address them live.

• ☕ A treat for you: Attendees will receive a virtual gift card to Tim Hortons.

Can’t attend live? Register anyway and we will send you the recording.

Secure your place today, and feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

REGISTER

Why you should attend: A message from Ian Ardill.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Next webinar: Pavilion first appeared on Ardill Group.

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We had an outstanding webinar on March 11^th, in which Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill interviewed Cooper Seeman, CPA, CA, Managing Director of Regimen Equity Partners. 

This webinar is your opportunity to gain access to the strategic thinking that guides Regimen Equity Partners, a Canadian private equity firm dedicated to partnering with exceptional business owners and driving sustainable, long-term growth.

Here is a recording of the webinar, including the Q&A. Feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Regimen Equity Partners webinar: the video first appeared on Ardill Group.

We hope you will join us for the next edition of our Coffee with Ardill webinar series on March 11^th at 12noon ET!  Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill will be in conversation with Cooper Seeman, CPA, CA, Managing Director of Regimen Equity Partners. 

This is your opportunity to gain access to the strategic thinking that guides Regimen Equity Partners, a Canadian private equity firm dedicated to partnering with exceptional business owners and driving sustainable, long-term growth.

• Live Q&A: Ask your questions directly. Cooper and Ian will address them live.

• ☕ A treat for you: Attendees will receive a virtual gift card to Tim Hortons.

Can’t attend live? Register anyway and we will send you the recording.

Secure your place today, and feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

REGISTER

Why you should attend: A message from Ian Ardill.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Next webinar: Regimen Equity Partners first appeared on Ardill Group.

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That was a highly informative session on February 11th, in which Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill shared his top, jargon-free insights on getting the most of out of your RRSP!

Here is a recording of the webinar, including the Q&A.

Feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post RRSPs Made Simple webinar: the video first appeared on Ardill Group.

For five years now, I have been shooting a show called Money Match, in which I interview asset managers at major organizations including Accilent Capital Management, Make Space, Newlook Capital and many others.

It’s time to take it to the next level – and turn it into a full-blown podcast, available on YouTube and our website as has been the case, but also on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

When I say next level, I also mean that while I will continue to interview asset managers about the investments they offer, I also want to talk with them about their personal story, and how it shapes their approach to money.

Deeper conversations, in other words, with asset managers – and also with fascinating thought leaders from completely outside the financial space.

MY FIRST GUEST is Brandon Crump: psychotherapist, elite CrossFit competitor, coach and family man. I am one of Brandon’s biggest fans. I have so much respect for the way he does so many things so well.  In our conversation, we talk about the intersection of mental, physical, spiritual and financial health.

Click the below image to watch or listen!  And don’t forget to follow and subscribe.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

Disclaimer: The Money Match Podcast is for informational purposes only. This content is not intended as personalized investment advice. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital.

The post Big reveal! Money Match: The podcast first appeared on Ardill Group.

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By Ian Ardill

The “Ten Titans,” which includes Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla, Oracle, and Netflix, now make up over 39% of the S&P 500, an index which can be viewed as a proxy for US markets overall. And the technology sector alone makes up 34% of the index.

The public equities markets, in other words, are quite highly concentrated.  This means they are vulnerable to the poor performance of a small number of companies.  Which might sound like a suggestion that investors should be skittish about staying invested.

Which is the exact opposite of the message I want to relay.

Staying invested is crucial because if concentrated markets experience a downturn, our human nature can tell us that we are unacceptably vulnerable – and therefore we must sell.  In many cases, however, to do so would be to make an emotional, aka behavioural, investing mistake.

This is also what is called “trying to time the market,” and I have three main things to say about it:

#1: Trying to time the market is very risky, and we advise against it. (S&P 500 Average Returns and Historical Performance)

#2: Being out of the market for just a few days – as few as 10-20 days in an entire decade – can greatly diminish returns. (“Staying the course does not mean ‘set it and forget it’”)

#3:  US equities have delivered consistent real growth over the long term, averaging roughly 6.5–7% per year after inflation – despite wars, recessions, political upheaval, and market crashes. (S&P 500 Average Returns and Historical Performance)

To put it another way, the cost of mistiming is greater than the cost of volatility.  And as we know from the 24-hour news cycle, we live in an increasingly volatile world.  

Consider a Vanguard study, in which a hypothetical $100,000 investment was made in the S&P 500 in 1988.  By 2024:

-Staying fully invested would have grown it to about $4.9 million.

-Missing just the 10 best days would reduce that to ~$2.3 million.

-Missing the 20 best days cuts it further to ~$1.4 million.

-Missing the 30 best days cuts it further to around ~$0.9 million.

That study also shows that the worst and best days are often clustered close together – making market timing even more difficult.

Another vital takeaway is that advice, from a human wealth advisor, is valuable in helping avoid emotional investing mistakes.  I have said before in this newsletter that I actually love “robo-advisor” investing platforms like Wealthsimple, because they make that case for me.  

This is because robo-advisors help people realize that managing their own investments is riskier and more complicated than they think.  People who’ve tried Wealthsimple and their competitors regularly come to me and ask for help with their portfolio, acknowledging something I fundamentally believe:  no one can be an expert at everything.  

Check out the video for some additional perspective.

Have any questions at all?  Want to discuss further, or tell us of someone you know, who would benefit from our disciplined approach?  Reach out anytime to me, or another one of our humans.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post The most expensive mistake first appeared on Ardill Group.