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By Ian Ardill

If you have glanced at the financial news this week, it sounds like the sky is falling. Following the collapse of last-minute trade talks in late August, the Trump administration slapped a 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods. On September 8, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney retaliated with a dollar-for-dollar counter-tariff matching that aggression across 629 American product lines. Add in the White House’s threat of 50% auto tariffs looming in January 2027, and it is easy to see why investors are feeling jittery. But here is the reality check: the stock market has a remarkably short memory when it comes to tariffs. Remember “Liberation Day” back in April 2025? The initial shock of those sweeping cross-border tariffs wiped 11% off the S&P 500 in a matter of days. Yet, what happened next? The markets absorbed the new reality, priced in the friction, and climbed back to record territory.

How the Markets Are Actually Reacting

When we look past the political theater, the economic data tells a story of resilience and sector rotation rather than outright catastrophe.

• The Canadian Buffer: You might expect the Canadian market (the TSX) to be reeling. However, the industries heavily targeted by the U.S. tariffs -like plastics, paper, and furniture- collectively make up less than 1% of the TSX index. Even the highly threatened auto-parts manufacturers only represent about 0.5% of the index.
• Commodities to the Rescue: The TSX is heavily weighted toward energy and materials. With global pressures currently pushing oil past $100 a barrel, this sector makeup is naturally insulating the broader Canadian index from the brunt of the trade war.
• The Inflation Side-Effect: The biggest real-world impact of this tariff battle is inflation. By raising input costs on everything from steel to appliances, tariffs act like a tax on the consumer. This has complicated the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to slash interest rates, causing bond yields to creep up.

Major financial institutions currently view these tariffs as a “meaningful but manageable headwind”. The broader bull market has proven it can absorb the shock so long as the trade dispute remains contained.

Why Balance Wins the Day Every Time

This brings us to the core philosophy of this newsletter: Balance wins the day every time.

When geopolitical noise reaches a fever pitch, the temptation is to make drastic moves -to sell out of fear, to try and time the market, or to concentrate heavily in whatever sector is temporarily “winning.” That is exactly how investors get burned.

Here is how a balanced approach actively protects you right now:

1. Cross-Border Diversification: By holding a mix of U.S. large-cap stocks and Canadian equities, you hedge against localized political missteps.
2. Sector Spread: The current environment is a textbook example of why sector diversification works. The weakness in cross-border consumer goods and manufacturing is actively being offset by the strength in the energy sector.
3. Cash/Bonds as an Anchor: Even with fluctuating interest rates, maintaining a strategic allocation to bonds helps smooth out the sudden volatility that comes from unexpected late-night tariff announcements.

Do not let the headlines dictate your financial future. The political landscape will always shift, but a well-constructed, balanced portfolio is designed to weather the storm.

If you have concerns, we are here to help; our door is always open.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.

Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

Market Intelligence Sources & References

• Wealth Professional Morning Briefing (Aug 27, 2026): RBC wealth management profit jumps 32% as client assets surge.
• Wealth Professional Morning Briefing (Aug 28, 2026): Alberta and Ontario pension funds post strong mid-year gains.
• Canada Life Weekly Market Update (Aug 31, 2026): Canada’s economy posts strong expansion in Q2; Canada to impose new tariffs on the U.S..
• Wealth Professional Morning Briefing (Sept 4, 2026): Canadian businesses face tariff crunch as trade war bites deep.
• Canada Life Weekly Market Update (Sept 8, 2026): Bank of Canada closely monitoring fresh trade war; Canadian and U.S. job growth head in opposite directions.
• Wealth Professional Morning Briefing (Sept 9, 2026): Canada leads global investor confidence, but scale gap remains: CPP report.
• Wealth Professional Morning Briefing (Sept 10, 2026): Canada’s $1-trillion investment opportunity: what advisors need to know.

The post WAR, TRADE, TRUMP and your Portfolio first appeared on Ardill Group.

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By John Ardill

The older I get, the more I think caution isn’t a personality trait, it’s a form of self-respect, especially when money is involved.

The other day, I found myself staring at a text that looked just real enough to make me pause. It had the right tone, the right urgency, and just enough bait to make me act before I thought. I remember feeling two things at once: how convincing it was, and how tiring all of this has become. That was the moment it really clicked for me. In this environment, one of the smartest investing habits I have isn’t finding the next great opportunity. It’s protecting my attention, slowing myself down, and refusing to let my guard slip.

What changed for me?

I used to think trust started with whether I liked the people involved. If someone seemed credible, polished, and well-connected, that felt reassuring. But I’ve learned that a good story can create a false sense of safety. These days, I try to look past the personalities and ask a more important question: what is built into this structure to protect me if something goes wrong?

So before I move forward, these are the three things I want to see:

1. A third-party custodian: I do not want the same person managing the money and holding the assets. I want a regulated bank or trust company in the middle.
2. Independent reporting: I do not want to rely only on updates from the person making the trades. I want outside administrators and auditors involved.
3. Outside oversight: If everyone in charge is too close to one another, I get nervous. I want real independent oversight, someone with the power to ask hard questions and say no when needed.

My takeaway

If I’ve learned anything, it’s this: trust may open the door, but it should never be the whole security system. What I want now is structure, transparency, and accountability. If those things are missing, I no longer try to persuade myself to feel comfortable. I walk away.

That’s what’s been on my mind lately. And if you’re feeling more cautious too, I don’t think that’s fear, I think it’s wisdom.

If this resonates, hit reply and tell me what safeguards matter most to you before you invest. I always enjoy hearing how other people think about this.

Take good care,

John Ardill
Founder and Mentor
Ardill Group

Direct: 1 416 400 5882
Office: 1 905 907 7000
john@ardillgroup.com

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By Ian Ardill

If you have picked up a financial publication or scanned industry news lately, you might think Private Canadian Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are dead. A lot of investors currently feel that Canadian REITs are no longer attractive, largely due to the widespread lack of liquidity across the Canadian market system. Although having your capital locked up certainly does not feel good, the essential question becomes: how should an investor truly feel about their investment in a Canadian REIT?

Shift from Growth Tool to Defensive Play

Traditionally, Canadian REITs were utilized primarily as a growth engine complemented by steady income. However, as the real estate market softened, REITs became increasingly less attractive from a pure capital growth standpoint, prompting a surge of investors wanting to exit simultaneously to regain liquidity. As a direct result, many funds gated or restricted redemptions, increasing investor dissatisfaction across the board.

• Impact on Major Private REITs: This liquidity pressure has notably affected Canada’s two largest private REIT offerings -Centurion Asset Management’s Centurion Apartment REIT and Avenue Living’s Core Trust.
• The Defensive Business Case: Is there still a place for REITs in a portfolio? Multi-residential REITs have temporarily shifted from being pure growth engines to defensive income investments with future growth potential. Multi-residential housing possesses key defensive strengths, including essential demand (people always need housing regardless of economic cycles), highly diversified revenue across thousands of tenants, and favorable CMHC-insured financing offering long amortizations and preferred rates.
• Bond Portfolio Comparison: When evaluating cash distributions, major offerings remain highly competitive with fixed-income portfolios. Centurion REIT provides a cash yield of 4.16% for Class A. Meanwhile, Avenue Living Core Trust targets an implied distribution yield of ~5.00% on Class D. These regular cash flows match or exceed standard bond yields while retaining long-term equity growth potential.

The obvious near-term downside remains the lack of immediate liquidity; however, the clear upside is the potential for equity growth beyond the ongoing income once market conditions reset.

Looking Ahead: Developer Trends & Future Growth

A key factor to consider is builder behavior across the industry. Most developers prefer building into a rising market rather than a down market. As a result, many new construction projects are scheduled to commence in 2028, 2029, and 2030, anticipating a return to stronger real estate market fundamentals. As supply bottlenecks persist and market conditions improve, established portfolios like Centurion and Avenue Living remain well-positioned for meaningful future growth. Recent updates highlight that new construction starts remain constrained by elevated financing costs and high development expenses, which sets the stage for a tighter housing market and accelerating rental growth in the coming years. Furthermore, large established platforms continue to benefit from strong operational fundamentals, high stabilized occupancy, and strategic liquidity initiatives such as asset sales and international capital raising.

Take-Home Message & Recommendations

If you are an investor who currently holds illiquid shares in a private Canadian REIT, here are my core recommendations:

1. Hold fast and take a deep breath: Not all is lost; the underlying multi-residential real estate assets remain fundamentally sound and continue to produce essential rental income.
2. Stay informed: Keep closely updated on available liquidity options and structural changes as fund managers introduce new redemption channels.
3. Utilize existing income: Consider using ongoing cash distributions as a reliable income stream to help fund retirement living or to complement other investment opportunities.

As always, I am here to help you navigate your portfolio strategy.

Ian

Market Intelligence Sources & References

• Centurion Asset Management Monthly Updates: NAV, portfolio occupancy, and redemption metrics (including Aug 2026 data).
• Avenue Living Core Trust Financials: Q2 2026 financial statements and leadership disclosures.
• CMHC Rental Market & Housing Supply Data (2026): Reports on housing starts, supply bottlenecks, and affordability estimates.
• Bond Market Context: Historical Bank of Canada policy rate data as of Sept 2026 for fixed-income comparison.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post The Death of the Canadian REIT first appeared on Ardill Group.

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By Ian Ardill

The first quarter of 2026 has certainly been an interesting ride.

We kicked off the year with reasonably strong markets throughout January and February, only to be met with a very rocky March. Ultimately, many markets experienced a rebound through April.

When you mix that kind of rollercoaster volatility with the fairly pessimistic outlook currently surrounding the Canadian economy, it would be easy for the average investor to feel rather gloomy.

That being said, I am actually quite excited.

Why? Because in any marketplace, there are always winners and losers. The question we must ask ourselves is: How do we position portfolios prudently for varying market conditions?

By no means am I suggesting that I possess a crystal ball to ensure we are always winning. However, I believe it is certainly reasonable to lean heavily into diversification. By deploying assets in an extremely diverse way, we are able to aim for respectable, long-term risk-adjusted returns across varying market environments.

As a money manager, I fundamentally believe that my job revolves around four core pillars:

• Disciplined long-term investment outcomes
• Mitigating risk
• Mitigating taxation
• Maximizing your lifestyle

Every single one of our clients has unique goals, objectives, and dreams for their future. The question then becomes: How can our group act as a true partner in making that vision a reality?

As always, we are here to help. My door is always open, and our entire team is ready to support you in achieving all of your financial and lifestyle objectives.

If you have any questions about your portfolio or the current market, please don’t hesitate to reach out or reply directly.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Q1 Market Review: Navigating Volatility and Finding Opportunity first appeared on Ardill Group.

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By John Ardill

The greater risk is not the obvious fraud, but the credible expert whose advice is confidently delivered and materially wrong. In Wrong, David Freedman argues that even highly credentialed authorities can be systematically mistaken, with real consequences for decisions about health, money, and public judgment.

Expertise Does Not Equal Accuracy

Freedman’s central point is straightforward: expertise does not guarantee accuracy. If we want to protect our health, finances, and judgment, we need a disciplined way to evaluate expert claims rather than assuming credentials alone are enough.

Why Experts Fail

Freedman shows that expert failure is often driven less by bad intent than by bad incentives. In areas such as nutrition and medicine, specialists are rewarded for producing clear, novel, and media-friendly conclusions, while complex or inconclusive findings are harder to fund, publish, and communicate. That pressure can encourage overstatement, selective emphasis, and a false sense of certainty. A useful warning sign is the sweeping claim that “everything we thought before was wrong”; in many cases, the stronger signal of credibility is nuance, not certainty.

Be Cautious with Online Expertise

Freedman highlights two recurring risks in digital environments:

• The internet makes it easy for self-styled experts to build audiences that rarely challenge their views, reinforcing confidence without improving accuracy.
• Easy access to information can create a false sense of mastery, causing people to confuse quick research with genuine understanding.

Freedman’s Expert Credibility Checklist

Use this checklist when evaluating a viral claim, media soundbite, or highly confident expert opinion.

The Bottom Line

In a world full of financial strategists, health authorities, and online gurus, the best defense is not more information but better judgment. The most reliable experts tend to qualify their claims, acknowledge complexity, and show where the evidence is strong, weak, or still evolving.

John Ardill
Founder and Mentor
Ardill Group

Direct: 1 416 400 5882
Office: 1 905 907 7000
john@ardillgroup.com

The post Why Experts Are Often Wrong first appeared on Ardill Group.

We hope you will join us for the next edition of our Coffee with Ardill webinar series on May 20^th at 12noon ET.  Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill will be having a compelling one-hour live conversation with Darren Krissie, CEO and Founder, of Skyward Equity Partners 

This is your opportunity to gain access to the strategic thinking that guides Skyward Equity Partners.

• Live Q&A: Ask your questions directly. Darren and Ian will address them live.

• ☕ A treat for you: Attendees will receive a virtual gift card to Tim Hortons.

Can’t attend live? Register anyway and we will send you the recording.

Secure your place today, and feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

REGISTER

Why you should attend: A message from Ian Ardill.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Next webinar: Skyward first appeared on Ardill Group.

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We have received some very positive feedback about the April 22nd webinar with Daniel Pembleton, asset manager of Pavilion! It was a great opportunity to gain access to information about a tax-saving investment strategy focused on Canadian natural resources.

Here is a recording of the webinar, including the Q&A. Feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested. If you would like to discuss any aspect of this opportunity, please contact us at info@ardillgroup.com or call us at 905-907-7000.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Pavilion webinar: the video first appeared on Ardill Group.

We hope you will join us for the next edition of our Coffee with Ardill webinar series on April 22^nd at 12noon ET.  Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill will be having a compelling one-hour live conversation with Daniel Pembleton, MBA, CFA, President of Accilent Capital Management, asset manager for Pavilion. 

This is your opportunity to gain access to information about a tax-saving investment strategy focused on Canadian natural resources.

• Live Q&A: Ask your questions directly. Daniel and Ian will address them live.

• ☕ A treat for you: Attendees will receive a virtual gift card to Tim Hortons.

Can’t attend live? Register anyway and we will send you the recording.

Secure your place today, and feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

REGISTER

Why you should attend: A message from Ian Ardill.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Next webinar: Pavilion first appeared on Ardill Group.

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We had an outstanding webinar on March 11^th, in which Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill interviewed Cooper Seeman, CPA, CA, Managing Director of Regimen Equity Partners. 

This webinar is your opportunity to gain access to the strategic thinking that guides Regimen Equity Partners, a Canadian private equity firm dedicated to partnering with exceptional business owners and driving sustainable, long-term growth.

Here is a recording of the webinar, including the Q&A. Feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Regimen Equity Partners webinar: the video first appeared on Ardill Group.

We hope you will join us for the next edition of our Coffee with Ardill webinar series on March 11^th at 12noon ET!  Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill will be in conversation with Cooper Seeman, CPA, CA, Managing Director of Regimen Equity Partners. 

This is your opportunity to gain access to the strategic thinking that guides Regimen Equity Partners, a Canadian private equity firm dedicated to partnering with exceptional business owners and driving sustainable, long-term growth.

• Live Q&A: Ask your questions directly. Cooper and Ian will address them live.

• ☕ A treat for you: Attendees will receive a virtual gift card to Tim Hortons.

Can’t attend live? Register anyway and we will send you the recording.

Secure your place today, and feel free to share with colleagues or friends who may be interested.

REGISTER

Why you should attend: A message from Ian Ardill.

Ian is a Dealing Representative with Raintree Financial Solutions, an Exempt Market Dealer. Exempt Market investments are offered only through RFS, while insurance and planning services through Ardill Group are outside RFS’s supervision. Please review the official offering documents and speak with your RFS advisor to ensure suitability before making any investment.

This webinar is for informational purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities. This webinar will not provide sufficient information for you to make a fully informed investment decision. This webinar also contains forward looking statements, which include target returns that may not be predictive of actual performance. Forward-looking information is based on the current expectations, estimates and projections of the securities issuer and involve a number of unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause the actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 769 2004
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Next webinar: Regimen Equity Partners first appeared on Ardill Group.