Happy Spring! As we enjoy the warmer weather, we are busy keeping our eyes on the market. 

Recently I read a fantastic article by economist David Rosenberg that captured my thoughts around our economy. It is not all doom and gloom, but if we take off our rose-coloured glasses, the economy is showing many signs of stress: stagflation, shrinking GDP, rising unemployment, and a capital gains tax increase. 

Inflation

When we look at the inflationary factors that are driving up costs, such as mortgage costs and carbon tax, we are arguably in a recession. And that’s not all: Canada is in stagflation, which is when there is higher unemployment, rising prices (you’ve seen grocery prices), and a slowdown in the economy—all at the same time. If we remove housing/rent from the conversation, inflation is around 1.5%. This is a massive difference from the 6% we saw just 24 months ago, indicating we are in a disinflationary period. Which, on its own, is a good thing.  Except…

GDP 

Canadian GDP per person is shrinking, and fast. It has now declined in five of the past six quarters for a total decline of $4,200 per person, returning us to 2017 levels. And so, from a financial perspective, an average Canadian’s quality of life is diminishing, as has generally been the case over the past 10 years.   

Higher Unemployment

The job market is struggling, too. The number of people searching for full-time employment—career seekers—has doubled in the last year. Coming out of the pandemic, the labour market looked promising, but that is not the case today. A lot of people are desperate for better-paying jobs and long-term careers. 

Capital Gains Tax Increase

From my perspective, the capital gains tax increase is disincentivizing individuals from reinvesting in their businesses. We already live in one of the most heavily-taxed regions of the world. Until recently, a business owner’s corporation provided a reasonably effective retirement planning tool—a fruit at the end of their labour for successfully running their own company. Unfortunately, many of the rules have changed as they relate to passive income and income splitting—two strategies that were of considerable effectiveness for business owners. And now, to boot, capital gains tax increases further erode the value of owning a successful business.

Silver Linings

To summarize, these are trying times for the economy. But, there are silver linings.  First, indicators point to a Bank of Canada announcement dropping interest rates by a quarter or half a point by December, and I believe the BoC will drop rates by a further full point in 2025. 

We can position your investments strategically

Here’s a second silver lining:  it is quite possible to position your investments strategically to weather the storm. For example, we could balance your portfolio with more exposure to the stronger US economy or other viable markets. In addition, we see some buy opportunities on the Canadian side in private equity investments.

While the Canadian economy isn’t exactly flourishing right now, this too shall pass. Meanwhile, let’s manage the risk in your portfolio appropriately to give you peace of mind, by taking advantage of some buy opportunities (see my story on REITs) and weathering the storm proactively.

P.S. Here is the article from the Financial Post that inspired this reflection: David Rosenberg: Tanking economy, productivity mean Bank of Canada should cut rates with or without the Fed. 

Also: “Canada’s gross domestic product per capita: Perspectives on the return to trend”: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2024004/article/00001-eng.htm 

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Private Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 717 5698
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post There are silver linings to this storm first appeared on Ardill Group.

REITs—real estate investment trusts—are some of my favourite investment assets.  And I believe there are some buying opportunities right now because there has been downward pressure on these assets’ prices.

A REIT is a company that finances or owns income-producing properties, such as apartments, houses or condominiums. Because interest rates have risen significantly over the past couple of years, so has the cost of capital, meaning that assets cost REIT owners more to carry, pushing down their profit margins.  Thus, many REITs have seen a writedown in the value of their assets—even if they have had positive yields.

We have also been seeing this phenomenon in the private equity space.  As interest rates and thus capitalization rates have increased, businesses have been selling at lower multiples than they were just a few years ago, because the cost to the buyer (cost of capital) is higher.  

Lower prices present opportunities for our clients, and signs are pointing toward interest rates coming down—meaning valuations will go up, meaning we believe that now is a great time to buy.

I hear you. The emotional part of your brain might be saying, “I am going to sit on the sidelines.  My money is safer in my bank account.”  However, the more analytical mind would say that there are some positive buying opportunities now, that may not be here in six to 12 months.

Let’s discuss your investments. I will work with you to determine your investment goals, timeline, knowledge and experience to determine Just the right match for your money.

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Private Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 717 5698
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Why a REIT might be right first appeared on Ardill Group.

By Ian Ardill

Ever wonder what it’s like to invest in rental real estate—without all the hassle? Ardill Group CEO Ian Ardill interviews Greg Romundt, President of Centurion Asset Management, the largest private apartment REIT in Canada, and the second largest apartment REIT, public or private. 

To quote Greg: “I think we are very conservatively positioned for the next couple of years—and we are springloaded for a turn in the market.”

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Private Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 717 5698
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post How Centurion is taking advantage of our gloomy economy first appeared on Ardill Group.

Summer is almost here! We hope you will take time to recharge and rejuvenate, taking advantage of the hot temperatures and much-needed sunlight after a long winter. 

Here at Ardill Group, family time is our priority this summer. My family and I are excited to have, for the first time, a permanent spot for our camper trailer on Scugog Landing. So, we will be spending time on the water, roasting some s’mores, and enjoying nature.

What will you be doing this summer? Please let us know—we look forward to hearing your stories!

Ian Ardill, B.A., M.T.S.
Private Wealth Advisor
CEO, Ardill Group

Direct: 1 905 717 5698
Office: 1 905 907 7000
ian@ardillgroup.com

The post Ready for summer first appeared on Ardill Group.

I believe that longevity starts with the simpler things in life: consistent sleeping, keeping alcohol to a minimum, being kind to yourself, and being your best supporter through positive self-talk. 

Focusing on who you want to be in the future is also vital. For example, I have been feeling old lately, so I started visualizing myself at age 60. I would rather focus on how energetic I felt then, than ruminate on how I feel now. I know that may sound silly, but my mind does not know the difference. 

The result? I am feeling invigorated. And that’s much better than feeling sorry for myself about aging. How’s that for a simple hack?

I have found that many people, including medical providers who’ve faced serious health issues and didn’t find much help from traditional medicine, also look into natural alternative treatments.

Fifteen years ago, my wife Joanne started to have unusual, life-threatening symptoms. It was a scary time. Ever since, we have been on an alternative healing journey, and with better results than with traditional treatments. We didn’t want to mask the symptoms with strong medications suggested by doctors for the rest of her life. We wanted to get to the root cause of the problem.

I have no silver bullets to dish out, but, over the next few newsletters, I will share with you my findings and top strategies from the last fifteen years. They are easy to apply and will not break the bank. Obviously, I’m not a doctor so please see your medical provider if need be.

Stay tuned.

All the best, and be good to yourself.

John Ardill
Founder and Mentor
Ardill Group

Direct: 1 416 400 5882
Office: 1 905 907 7000
john@ardillgroup.com

The post The Pursuit of Longevity: Living Vibrantly at 80, 90, or Beyond first appeared on Ardill Group.